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Jones:
Yudhoyono's Victory Is 'Really Good News' for Indonesia
Sidney Jones, a leading
expert on Indonesia, says the apparent election of former
General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as president--official
results will be announced October 5--is "really good
news." In the September 20 vote, Indonesia's first
direct election of a president, "not only did one person
come out on top, but he appears to have come out with an
overwhelming mandate," she says.
The Indonesian government expelled Jones, The Indonesia
Project director for the International Crisis Group, in
June, reportedly because officials were unhappy with her
research on separatists and terrorists. She says that Yudhoyono
is widely seen as someone who can crack down on widespread
corruption in the country and limit the role of the military.
"He's a reformer, but a reformer within a certain kind
of establishment mode," she says. The new president,
she says, has the strong support of the United States but,
because of widespread anti-U.S. public sentiment, it was
not publicly expressed. "It's the kiss of death to
any Indonesian politician to be seen as liked by the United
States these days," Jones says.
Jones was interviewed by Bernard Gwertzman, consulting editor
for cfr.org, on September 21, 2004.
Other Interviews
What is the significance of the election of General
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono?
First of all, it's a huge mandate for a democratically
elected president, which is the first time any president
has had such a popular mandate.
The outgoing president, Megawati Sukarnoputri,
did not have such a mandate?
No, because she [was appointed] after [President]
Abdurrahman Wahid was impeached [in July 2001]. Her party
had won the biggest share of seats in the parliament in
1999, but there wasn't direct election of the president
[at that time]. This was the first direct election for president;
not only did one person come out on top, but he appears
to have come out with an overwhelming mandate. That's really
good news for Indonesia, for Indonesian democracy, for the
ability to actually take authoritative action.
What kind of person is he? How did he become a
general?
He's from a small town in east Java. He rose through
the ranks, but never in the real combat jobs. He was always
considered an intellectual within the armed forces, which
is not the oxymoron you might think. He's a reformer, but
a reformer within a certain kind of establishment mode.
People give him credit for pushing to have the dual function
of the military--its involvement not only in defense and
internal security but also in day-to-day politics--removed
from the army's definition of itself.
In that sense, he has a very positive image as somebody
who is trying to bring about change from within. Indonesian
voters, I think, looked at his military background and said
this is the kind of decisive leader we are looking for,
because Megawati was certainly not that. The problem is
that the one word that's used repeatedly to characterize
him is "indecisive." People who have worked closely
with him say that he's very cautious, that he has difficulty
coming to closure on things, and that he's not the "great
white hope" that many people believe he is. His response
to that--he's been asked directly about this because it's
such a widespread characterization--is that it was the president
who was blocking any policies from coming forward and that,
once he's in charge and can make the decisions, this particular
attribute won't be visible any longer.
He was the security chief...
His official title was coordinating minister for political
and security affairs.
Did Islamic terrorism grow under his watch?
One of the problems with that job was that it had
no real executive authority and no budget. It was powerful
in theory, and he was certainly overseeing everything as
much as he could, but he was basically overseeing a bunch
of extremely hostile services that couldn't relate to one
another or coordinate [their activities], and he didn't
have the mandate to knock heads together. One of the things
I think he'll change is the administrative nature of the
security agency, and he's talking about putting together
a U.S.-style National Security Council with a national security
adviser.
Megawati has been accused of being too soft on the
terrorists. Is Yudhoyono going to be able to crack down?
First of all, even under Megawati, the police were
doing a pretty decent job, far better, I think, than most
of the other countries in the region. The police cracked
down on people who had been [involved] in various [terror]
bombings, they penetrated the network and caused serious
disruptions within [the Indonesian Muslim extremist group]
Jemaah Islamiyah [JI]. On the law enforcement side, greatly
aided by the Australian Federal Police, the Indonesians
have done a credible job. The problem is that the government
has never banned Jemaah Islamiyah, the government has never
acknowledged its existence as an organization, and it's
never moved the problem beyond law enforcement to look at
the more thorny issues about what kinds of places produce
these bombers, what kind of recruitment goes on, and so
on.
Yudhoyono will probably improve coordination among intelligence
agencies, which is a useful thing to do, but it's not clear
that--even if he wanted to, and it's not clear that he does--he
will move beyond law enforcement, or that he would be able
to overcome the constraints Megawati faced. I don't think
she had the political will, but she also had two serious
constraints--one on the left and one on the right. She had
a strong Muslim constituency led by her vice president Hamzah
Haz, who believed that to either ban Jemaah Islamiyah or
to crack down on the schools where some of these guys were
being recruited was to stigmatize Islam and the Islamic
community generally. The argument was that the name "Jemaah
Islamiyah" means "Islamic community," and
therefore to ban it or to declare it tantamount to a terrorist
organization was to stigmatize the Muslim faithful in Indonesia.
She let that argument win.
Has Yudhoyono indicated that he would crack down
on JI?
No, and when he's been asked specifically whether
he would ban it, he waffled. You have that kind of obstacle
on the Muslim side, and on the political reformist side,
in the NGO [nongovernmental organization] community, and
in much of the media, you have the concern that to ban an
organization like JI is to raise the specter of restrictions
on freedom of association and freedom of expression. There's
this concern that we can't do anything that would jeopardize
the hard-won civil liberties that we gained after [General]
Suharto [Indonesia's autocratic ruler in 1967-98] fell.
That's the constraint on the other side.
For Indonesian voters, are economic issues paramount
in this election?
No issues were paramount. It was all personality-driven.
If you look at the campaign literature, it's hilarious--you
get this book called "99 Reasons to Vote for Yudhoyono
as President," and it's everything from "he's
a person of integrity, he's clean, he's loyal, he's devout,
he's sexy," and nothing about any kind of policies
or specific issues. If you ask Indonesian voters specifically,
then eventually economic issues come out, but issues were
never the basis of this election campaign.
How is the economy faring?
There was a stock market boost after Yudhoyono's
victory. The economy overall is OK, but a bit stagnant.
There's little new investment coming in, but I think more
might [start in the wake of Yudhoyono's election]. The rupiah
is stable, but the economy is not growing fast enough to
absorb the labor force.
What can Yudhoyono do about corruption?
One of the [questions] is what he's going to do
on legal reform and corruption. Megawati basically did nothing
on either.
Is that a big problem in Indonesia?
It's huge. Indonesia's routinely listed by Transparency
International as one of the most corrupt countries in the
world.
Corruption exists throughout public life?
It has for years. The only way you're ever going
to make a dent is to have leadership from the top, with
the Cabinet setting an example. Megawati's husband was the
biggest non-example in the leadership; he did nothing to
try to put curbs on that. If you talk to Yudhoyono, he will
talk about how he admires what [Prime Minister Abdullah]
Badawi has done in Malaysia, he will talk about the need
to take on high-profile cases as a model, but most importantly,
he'll talk about having his own administration. That's easy
to say; it's much less easy to do when he's got to [distribute]
ministries to political allies.
What kind of corruption? A company gets a contract
and has to give a cut to the minister involved?
That's one aspect of it. For example, the Ministry
of Education basically gives out privileged tenders or contracts
to cronies to print elementary school textbooks. The most
corrupt ministry of all in Indonesia is the Ministry of
Religion because of the amount of money skimmed off in the
hajj [annual pilgrimage] to Mecca, which is all state-run.
How does the U.S. government feel about Yudhoyono?
The U.S. government is extremely supportive, but
part of the problem is that it's the kiss of death to any
Indonesian politician to be seen as liked by the United
States these days.
Polls indicate that U.S. popularity is at an all-time low
in Indonesia.
It is. Anti-U.S. sentiment has never been higher, and it's
very much focused on [President] Bush and the Bush administration.
As an American, I don't have any problems with the Indonesian
populace; individual Americans don't feel like they're the
subject of hatred or hostility, but the hostility toward
the government is unbelievable.
Is it all because of the war in Iraq?
It's Iraq, and it's support for Israel and [Prime
Minister Ariel] Sharon, and it's immigration policies--Indonesians
see themselves being discriminated against, they have Muslim
names or come from a Muslim country, and they can't get
U.S. visas for study--it's a whole range of things.
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